Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 0.365155 0.424381 0.488647 0.563371 0.647665 0.739606 0.847264
2025-05-11 0.284646 0.362422 0.453321 0.566675 0.703457 0.862357 1.060027
2025-05-18 0.211829 0.295328 0.400283 0.540244 0.720129 0.941536 1.232365
2025-05-25 0.154955 0.237229 0.348586 0.507315 0.724222 1.006306 1.396191
2025-06-01 0.119851 0.201299 0.319783 0.499749 0.760167 1.116355 1.631776
2025-06-08 0.091900 0.169787 0.291682 0.488857 0.790487 1.223375 1.877375
2025-06-15 0.075514 0.152776 0.282271 0.504211 0.861166 1.395772 2.234457
2025-06-22 0.056091 0.125716 0.251630 0.481419 0.871261 1.481825 2.477757
2025-06-29 0.042725 0.106088 0.229567 0.468942 0.896022 1.593272 2.771988
2025-07-06 0.032157 0.088826 0.208023 0.453478 0.913603 1.695581 3.063444
2025-07-13 0.026452 0.080438 0.201936 0.465595 0.981148 1.887452 3.518504
2025-07-20 0.020864 0.070372 0.190065 0.464340 1.024296 2.042827 3.928682
2025-07-27 0.016738 0.062823 0.182613 0.472354 1.089343 2.249168 4.455708
2025-08-03 0.013297 0.055756 0.174551 0.477779 1.150734 2.456761 5.007025
2025-08-10 0.009578 0.045864 0.156529 0.456998 1.155651 2.560582 5.383944
2025-08-17 0.006645 0.036819 0.137747 0.430082 1.143206 2.629864 5.704937
2025-08-24 0.004998 0.031642 0.128389 0.424818 1.178195 2.797301 6.228160
2025-08-31 0.003688 0.026901 0.118676 0.416397 1.204709 2.950619 6.738716
2025-09-07 0.003021 0.024810 0.117145 0.430680 1.288153 3.232376 7.528814
2025-09-14 0.002095 0.020315 0.105176 0.411481 1.285641 3.329352 7.954097
2025-09-21 0.001503 0.017143 0.096814 0.401145 1.304132 3.474456 8.491245
2025-09-28 0.001050 0.014282 0.088323 0.388076 1.313172 3.599038 8.995632
2025-10-05 0.000843 0.013146 0.087000 0.399069 1.390090 3.888121 9.875302